Brexit. Lovely Brexit. You still have the capacity to send me into regular fits of fury, rocking back and forth muttering "but it's all just so bloody STUPID". You'd think, like Sadiq Khan and many others, that I'd be campaigning hard for another referendum on the final deal (or 'no deal') therefore - the so called "People's Vote". I feel I should, I really do, and if such a vote were to come to pass, I would be at the polling station as soon as the doors opened, ticking the "ABORT ABORT" box in bright red marker pen.
You know what though? I'm really not sure a People's Vote is a good idea. I completely get all the arguments in favour: that nobody was really sure what they were signing up to the first time, that the stakes are too high and consequences too dire to not give people another say, that the first vote was tainted by dodgy dealings by Leave.EU, that The People have changed their minds (a few of them at least)... I understand all that, and if we can be certain the mood of the nation has significantly, irreversibly shifted, we should absolutely poll again. We'd be mad not to given the height of the cliff we're about to walk off.
The main problem is people. People don't readily change their minds. Sure, I've seen a few of those talking head videos on Twitter, where Beryl from Barnsley claims to have had a change of heart now she fully understands the implications of Brexit. Recent studies have also suggested that more than one hundred constituencies that marginally voted Leave would now back Remain and that demographic shifts mean a Remain vote would now be more likely. Yet the shift is still not exactly landslide and I remain sceptical that any of this would be enough to change the result should a second vote be held, particularly if the Leave campaign plays as dirty and Remain proves as useless as they were the first time round.
Most polls suggested Remain would fairly comfortably win before the 2016 referendum. They didn't, and as far as the bulk of Leave voters are concerned, little has really changed since then. A number of the Vote Leave campaign's promises have been exposed as lies - but we more or less knew the NHS bus claims were bollocks before the vote. And as for alleged Russian meddling - I doubt most Leavers would consider the Russians to have had any influence on their personal choice so wouldn't much care. Yes, the government's Brexit planning is proving to be chaotic and yes, infighting within the Conservatives is threatening to split the party - but it was Tory divisions on Europe that got us in this mess in the first place. Only the most naive of voters could have believed that a referendum would magically heal those rifts, or that the government would subsequently make an efficient, collegiate job of Brexit. As Leavers so often shout - "we knew exactly what we were voting for", so we have to conclude that they knew Brexit would be a total shambles and didn't much care as long as we still got the hell out. As for the ever more dire predictions being put forward by economists - while there may be irrefutable evidence that our economy will be damaged, the good old 'experts' were clearly warning of this before the vote too. Leave campaigners dismissed them as "project fear", and with the UK economy currently lacklustre but not a total disaster, there's little to suggest that they'd be any more swayed by the doom-mongering this time.
Most polls suggested Remain would fairly comfortably win before the 2016 referendum. They didn't, and as far as the bulk of Leave voters are concerned, little has really changed since then. A number of the Vote Leave campaign's promises have been exposed as lies - but we more or less knew the NHS bus claims were bollocks before the vote. And as for alleged Russian meddling - I doubt most Leavers would consider the Russians to have had any influence on their personal choice so wouldn't much care. Yes, the government's Brexit planning is proving to be chaotic and yes, infighting within the Conservatives is threatening to split the party - but it was Tory divisions on Europe that got us in this mess in the first place. Only the most naive of voters could have believed that a referendum would magically heal those rifts, or that the government would subsequently make an efficient, collegiate job of Brexit. As Leavers so often shout - "we knew exactly what we were voting for", so we have to conclude that they knew Brexit would be a total shambles and didn't much care as long as we still got the hell out. As for the ever more dire predictions being put forward by economists - while there may be irrefutable evidence that our economy will be damaged, the good old 'experts' were clearly warning of this before the vote too. Leave campaigners dismissed them as "project fear", and with the UK economy currently lacklustre but not a total disaster, there's little to suggest that they'd be any more swayed by the doom-mongering this time.
So I don't want a second vote because I fear will be a futile waste of money and fingernails, that won't change a thing. But I also object because the original referendum should never have occured in the first place. We shouldn't be trying to 'fix it' using the same blunt and dangerous tool that got us here in the first place. What we Remainers really want is an admission that the original vote was ill conceived and detrimental to the country. I want Theresa May to tell us straight: Cameron fucked up and we were wrong to ever call a referendum. We've explored every option but Brexit simply cannot be done without wrecking the nation, so we're not going to do it.
Except this is about as likely to happen as Theresa May revealing herself to be a trophy-winning salsa champion. The best we can hope for is that a vote in parliament rejects the final Brexit deal (or 'no deal', as is increasingly likely) and the whole project is hastily and awkwardly scrapped. This would likely damage social cohesion in the UK beyond repair, and I almost want Brexit to go through just so we can quell the inevitable far-right backlash that will result from its failure. Yet a People's Vote - despite what campaigners (almost exclusively Remainers of course) allege - won't exactly leave Leavers humbled and acquiesant should Remain win. They will be even sorer losers than Remainers have been, the outcry even greater. My vote would make me personally complicit in thwarting the masses of Leavers who genuinely thought they'd finally got their oft ignored voices heard. I don't want to be passionately hated like that. I don't want my cross in the box to be responsible for further widening the gulf between ages and classes, 'natives' and immigrants, Leavers and Remainers.
But then even if Brexit goes ahead, the economic downturn that will result is likely to plunge us further into the depths of outsider suspicion and hatred anyway. There are no good options. So whatever disastrous form it takes (and we probably won't actually know the shape of the final and future deal for some time), when and if Brexit happens, leavers need to own and be held responsible for the consequences. Because as much as I am sick of the mantra, "BREXIT IS THE WILL OF THE PEOPLE", it is true. We voted, Leave won, and unless the government unexpectedly slam on the brakes, we all now have to brave the fall out of the dangerous folly that is direct democracy. There is almost too much water under the bridge to go back now, so if Beryl from Barnsley regrets it - well then tough. An important life lesson never to vote for something you don't know enough about, eh Beryl?